Prevalence of MS accelerating in Australia in recent years: Report
Findings consistent with observations of increasing MS prevalence worldwide
The number of people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) in Australia rose by more than 50% in the decade between 2010 and 2021, according to a recent report.
These findings are consistent with global observations that the prevalence of MS has been steadily increasing worldwide.
“Research and rapidly translated policy solutions regarding MS prevention are now crucial to halt this disturbing trend,” researchers wrote in the study “Significantly increasing multiple sclerosis prevalence in Australia from 2010 to 2021,” which was published in the Multiple Sclerosis Journal.
Findings from the analysis are also discussed in the Health Economic Impact of Multiple Sclerosis in Australia 2021 report, an initiative from MS Australia that’s funded by Novartis Australia.
Person diagnosed with MS every five minutes: Atlas of MS
Accumulating evidence shows the prevalence of MS, an inflammatory neurodegenerative disease, has been increasing over recent years. An estimate from the Atlas of MS indicated the number of people with MS increased from 2.3 million in 2013 to 2.8 million in 2020, with a new person diagnosed with MS once every five minutes. Reports coming out of individual countries have reflected a similar increase.
In the recent report, scientists set out to estimate the prevalence of MS in Australia in 2021 and compare it to estimates from previous years.
To make their calculation, researchers examined prescription data related to MS disease-modifying therapies (DMT) that were housed in a government database. If a person filled a prescription for a DMT in that year, they were counted as an MS case.
DMT usage was also evaluated using data from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study, which is collecting data from about 2,500 people with MS every year, and general population data came from other government sources.
Using this method, the researchers identified that an estimated 33,335 people were living with MS in Australia during 2021, amounting to 131.1 people with MS for every 100,000 people in the country. That’s a 56.6% increase from 2010, when the prevalence of MS in Australia was estimated to be 21,283 people (95.6 in 100,000), and a 30.2% increase from 2017, when the prevalence was 25,607 (103.7 per 100,000).
Notably, the increase in MS over time appeared to be accelerating, as the change between 2017 and 2021 was substantially larger than the change between 2010 and 2017.
Higher prevalence of MS in states farthest from equator
Similar trends were observed in most individual Australian states and territories. A higher prevalence of MS was observed in the country’s southernmost states, which are farthest away from the equator.
This so-called latitudinal gradient has been observed in other studies and is thought to be related to less exposure to sunlight. Less sunlight exposure is linked to lower vitamin D levels, which is considered a risk factor for MS development.
The researchers noted there are several factors that could be contributing to the increasing prevalence of MS, including improved awareness about the neurodegenerative disease that leads to more diagnoses, and better healthcare that enables MS patients to live longer.
Moreover, changes in lifestyle factors that influence MS risk, such as obesity and poor sunlight exposure, could be contributing to more cases.
Ultimately, the researchers believe this increase in MS prevalence will have important implications for how healthcare resources are used in the country, and will contribute to rising healthcare costs. Indeed, the report showed the rise in MS prevalence was accompanied by increased costs. The total costs for all MS patients in Australia increased from around $1.75 billion in 2017 to nearly $2.50 billion in 2021.
The researchers indicated they’ll continue to study these changing trends and will calculate new MS prevalence estimates from 2024 to be included in the next report.
“We expect that this accelerating increase in prevalence will continue and this has resourcing implications into the future, particularly in those states where prevalence is accelerating at an even faster rate,” study authors Julie Campbell, PhD, of the Menzies Institute for Medical Research at the University of Tasmania, and Steve Simpson-Yap, PhD, of the Menzies Institute and the University of Melbourne, said in an MS Australia press release.
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